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An Overview of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics |
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OverviewThe Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), begun in 1968, is a longitudinal study of a representative sample of U.S. individuals (men, women, and children) and the family units in which they reside. It emphasizes the dynamic aspects of economic and demographic behavior, but its content is broad, including sociological and psychological measures. As a consequence of low attrition rates and the success in following young adults as they form their own families and recontact efforts (of those declining an interview in prior years), the sample size has grown from 4,800 families in 1968 to more than 7,000 families in 2001. At the conclusion of 2003 data collection, the PSID will have collected information about more than 65,000 individuals spanning as much as 36 years of their lives. The study is conducted at the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan and has been made possible through the generous Sponsorship of government agencies, foundations, and other organizations over the years. Since 1982, the study has had an advisory Board of Overseers, appointed by the NSF to foster input from the national community of scholars, researchers, and policy makers. The study is currently directed by a team of Principal Investigators.The SampleThe PSID sample, originating in 1968, consisted of two independent samples: a cross-sectional national sample and a national sample of low-income families. The cross-sectional sample was drawn by the Survey Research Center (SRC). Commonly called the SRC sample, this was an equal probability sample of households from the 48 contiguous states and was designated to yield about 3,000 completed interviews. The second sample came from the Survey of Economic Opportunity (SEO), conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Office of Economic Opportunity. In the mid-1960's, the PSID selected about 2,000 low-income families with heads under the age of sixty from SEO respondents. The sample, known as the SEO sample, was confined to Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's) in the North and non-SMSA's in the Southern region. The PSID core sample combines the SRC and SEO samples.From 1968 to 1996, the PSID interviewed and reinterviewed individuals from families in the core sample every year, whether or not they were living in the same dwelling or with the same people. Adults have been followed as they have grown older, and children have been observed as they advance through childhood and into adulthood, forming family units of their own. In 1997 a number of changes to the study took place. First, we changed from every year interviewing and redesigned the instrument for biennial data collection. Second, in order to accommodate the study's five-year funding cycle and to keep the study representative of the U.S. population, two major changes were made to the PSID sample: 1) a reduction of the core sample and 2) the introduction of a refresher sample of post 1968 immigrant families and their adult children. The original core sample was reduced from nearly 8,500 families in 1996 to approximately 6,168 in 1997. Several scenarios were discussed, but in the end, the Census (SEO) subsample was selected for reduction by two thirds. However, with funding from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, the W.T. Grant Foundation, and the Annie E. Casey Foundation, we were able to reinstate some of the dropped families from the nonselected portion of the SEO sample. The families to be reinstated were headed by an African American individual and contained at least one child aged 12 or under in 1996. This subset consists of 609 families that would otherwise have been removed from the study by the core reduction described above. These families are a separate supplemental sample and do not have weights for national totals of such variables as family income, employment or wealth. However, for unweighted analytic purposes, these observations can be used. For more information on the SEO sample, please see "Notes on the SEO or Census Component of the PSID" by Charles Brown. The other major issue in keeping the sample representative had been the changing nature of immigration in the United States since the beginning of the study in 1968. In 1990, we added 2,000 Latino households, including families originally from Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Cuba. But while this sample did represent three major groups of immigrants, it missed out on the full range of post-1968 immigrants, Asians in particular. Because of this crucial shortcoming, and a lack of sufficient funding, the Latino sample was dropped after 1995, and a sample of 441 immigrant families was added in 1997. These families are included on the files along with the core PSID families. The sample so refreshed was 6,434 for 1999 and is projected to grow to almost 7,400 in 2005. Data CollectionThe PSID was collected in face-to-face interviews using paper and pencil questionnaires between 1968 and 1972. Thereafter, the majority of interviews were conducted over the telephone. In 1993, the PSID introduced the use of computer assisted telephone interviewing. In the 1999 wave, 97.5% of the interviews were conducted over the phone, and all interviews were conducted using computer-based instruments. Core ContentThe PSID data files provide a wide variety of information about both families and individuals collected over the span of the study. The central focus of the data is economic and demographic, with substantial detail on income sources and amounts, employment, family composition changes, and residential location. Content of a more sociological or psychological nature is also included in some waves of the study. Information gathered in the survey applies to the circumstances of the family unit as a whole (e.g., type of housing) or to particular persons in the family unit (e.g., age, earnings). While some information is collected about all individuals in the family unit, the greatest level of detail is ascertained for the primary adults heading the family unit. Maintaining the comparability of the data throughout time is crucial for a panel study. Over the years, the general design and content of certain variables have remained largely unchanged. The central focus is to maintain a clean and consistent time series of core content--income sources and amounts, employment, family composition changes, and demographic events--based on the study's annual interviews. See Table 1 for a list of the major core topics. Beginning in 1985, comprehensive retrospective fertility and marriage histories of individuals in the households have been assembled. Other important topics covered by the PSID include housing and food expenditures, housework time, health (recently designed 1999 module), and consumption, wealth, pensions and savings.Supplements to the PSIDIn the early years, respondents were asked about their housing and neighborhood characteristics, child care, achievement motivation, job training, and retirement plans. In more recent years, special topics include extensive supplements on education, military combat experience, health, kinship networks, and wealth (Table 2). A series of health supplements funded by the National Institute on Aging in the early 1990s contain a rich set of questions regarding the health of family members aged 55 and above: general health status, activities of daily living, nursing home stays, home-based care episodes, and major health expenditures. This set of questions, combined with the 1990 RAND Health supplement, provide extensive coverage over a six-year period of the health status of older PSID family unit members. In 1993-1995, the annual Health Care Burden Supplement focused on health care expenditures of the elderly and the extent to which family members spent either time or money taking care of their parents. Grants from the National Institute on Aging (NIA) have made possible the collection of wealth data for the PSID in 1984, 1989, 1994, and 1999. With sufficient funding, we anticipate collecting data on wealth and active savings in each future wave of the study.Another major content expansion was the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD)-funded Child Development Supplement (CDS) first fielded in 1997. This study, which focused on the human capital development of approximately 3,600 children age 0-12 in PSID families, included extensive measures of the children's home environment, family processes, children's time diaries in home and at school, school and day care environment, and measures of their cognitive, emotional and physical functioning. For details, instruments and related publications, visit the Child Development Supplement Website. These data will again be collected in 2001-2002. Special Supplemental FilesSeveral special files, each with detailed information about a particular topic collected over the years, are released separately, either because the size of the files makes them too cumbersome for storage on the study's main files or because of the unique nature of the data. Most of these files are public-release files, but some are restricted files that require analysts to sign a special contract with the University of Michigan to ensure the confidentiality of the PSID respondents. See Table 3 for a listing of such files.File Structure of the PSID DataBefore 1990, PSID main files for each interviewing wave consisted of a Cross-Year Family-Individual Response File, a Cross-Year Family-Individual Nonresponse File, and a Cross-Year Family File. Cross-Year Family-Individual Response and Nonresponse files had an identical file structure: one contained records for all individuals who are members of PSID family units interviewed in the most recent interviewing wave, while the other contained information for all individuals who were members of families interviewed in the past but who had attrited in the most recent wave. The Cross-Year Family-Individual File stored both individual-level variables and family-level variables collected in the most current wave and in past waves. The Cross-Year Family File contained only family-level variables.Beginning with the 1990 data, the record format of the cross-year files exceeded the maximum allowed on most computing systems, and, consequently, a new file structure for the PSID data was developed. This new file format consists of separate, single-year files with family-level data collected in each wave (i.e., 26 family files for data collected from 1968 through 1993), and one cross-year individual file with individual-level data collected from 1968 to the most recent interviewing wave. In this new scheme, each family file contains one record for each family interviewed in the specified year. The records in each file are identified by the Family ID for that year, are sorted by that variable, and contain the family-level variables collected in that year. The cross-year individual file contains one record for each person ever in a PSID family through the current year. The records in the cross-year individual file are identified by 1968 Family ID and Person Number and are sorted by these variables. The file also contains the Family ID of the family with which the person was associated in each year. The cross-year individual file contains all individual-level variables for 1968 through the current year. With the new file structure, a moderate amount of data management is required to merge the family files with the individual file to create a traditional PSID cross-year family-individual file. The advantage of this new file format is that the files require the minimum amount of storage space. Since each file is considerably smaller than the traditional cross-year family-individual file, the PSID data in this new file format are less demanding of computing resources. This new file structure also allows users to extract a subsample of individuals or families and the variables of interest to create a substantially smaller file to work with from the beginning of the data analysis process. Sample SAS and SPSS programs for merging PSID data are available. Data Dissemination and UseOur overall system starts with the Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing application (CATI) going through various stages of processing and then to delivery of the public-use files via the Internet. To facilitate research with the complex file structure of the PSID, in 1996 we added the PSID Data Center as part of our overall processing system. The Data Center is fully automated and allows for user-specified subsetting criteria when downloading and merging data files. ASCII or SAS data files can be generated, along with OSIRIS, SAS, SPSS, and Stata data definition statements. The Data Center is the most popular means for obtaining PSID data, and it delivers about 6,500 customized data files to researchers and quantitative social science students each year. The Data Center also provides access to customized HTML and PDF codebooks. HTML-formatted computer-assisted interview documentation, and PDF versions of questionnaires are available at the documentation page. In addition to the data center, data and documentation can also be obtained from the PSID Web site in the form of prepackaged files. Main data and documentation files and SAS and SPSS data definition statements are available at the data and documentation page. The packaged data files are in ASCII format. The data center automatically merges your selected files, but example SAS and SPSS programs have been prepared to assist users with creating cross-year analysis files from packaged downloads. Supplemental data files and documentation are also available. The PSID bibliography provides citations of works that use PSID and CDS data. Since the start of the study, the PSID data and documentation have been distributed by the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research. PSID staff members assist data users with issues concerning the data and
questions about analysis through the PSID Help-Desk. If you have questions,
please Key Contributions of the PSID to the Knowledge BaseThe enormous usefulness of longitudinal data from a national
sample of families on economic and social issues has made PSID into one of the
most widely used social science data sets in the world. Citations studies show
that since 1968, more than 2,000 journal articles, books and Figure 1 shows how journal articles and dissertations using the PSID data have grown steadily in number. In the last five years alone, there were more than 290 journal articles and 70 Ph.D. dissertations that were based on the PSID. The PSID was founded to study poverty and the effect of
the War on Poverty on family economic well-being. At that time it was widely
believed that unemployment was the most important reason for poverty and
economic distress. Probably the most important finding in the early years, and
one that shaped later data collection, was the finding that family structure
changes such as divorce were as important to family well-being as unemployment.
In particular, it was discovered that the income of women declined nearly 30
percent and their income relative to needs declined by 6.7 percent following
divorce, while the income of men declined less and their income relative to
needs increased 16.7 percent (Hoffman, 1977; Duncan and Hoffman, 1985).
Intergenerational Studies The PSID has supported unique contributions to intergenerational research. The long time-series data provide a rare opportunity for researchers to construct family and individual experiences through the life stages, from birth through childhood to early adulthood. In addition to the long-panel, PSID data provide many sibling pairs for researchers to address the long-standing issue of unobserved heterogeneity. Work based on the PSID has emerged in the last few years in major journals in sociology, demography and psychology. This body of literature helps to understand how early family events, poverty, welfare receipt, and early human capital investment, affect achievements in adulthood - after controlling for a wide range of family and neighborhood characteristics (Haveman et al. 1997, Duncan et al, 1998). Many of these issues have significant policy implications for the recent welfare reform and the development of new poverty measures (Harris,1996; Hoyne, 1997). These studies illustrate that it is vital to control for both state and individual effects. Panel data allow for the identification of family events, state, and individual effects which neither cross-sectional nor repeated cross-sections can. PSID data have been used for some important work on intergenerational transfers. Altonji et al. (1996; 1997) examined theories of parental helping behavior and inter vivos transfers. They found that money transfers tend to reduce inequality in household incomes and that time transfers are only weakly related to income differences. Among parents and in-laws, the richer set of parent is more likely to give money and less likely to receive money. Richer siblings give more to parents and receive less. In contrast to the implications of simple exchange models of transfers, there is little evidence in the cross section or in the analysis using siblings that parental income or wealth raises time transfers from children or that time transfers are exchanged for money transfers. Work along this line includes that of Jayakody (1998), Wilhelm (1996), and Couch et al. (1999). Furstenberg et al. (1995) examined the effects of divorce on intergenerational transfers of money and time and found no evidence that divorced fathers who paid child support are more likely to be involved in intergenerational transfers than those who did not pay child support. These results support a growing body of evidence that marital disruption is altering the organization of kinship in American society. When men relinquish ties to their children during childhood, they rarely resume those ties in later life. Smock and Maning (1997) found that the characteristics of nonresident parents are central to understanding levels of child support International Comparisons PSID data have also played an increasingly important role in international comparative research. Couch & Dunn (1997) used PSID and German panel data to calculate comparable measures of intergenerational correlation of earnings, hours, and education in the two countries. A remarkable similarity exists across the two countries in the correlation of earnings and of annual work hours of fathers. There is a stronger correlation for daughters and mothers in the U.S. than in Germany, which may be due to the greater labor market integration of women in the U.S. Blau and Kahn (1996) reported a higher level of wage inequality in the U.S. than in nine other OECD countries. They found that the greater overall U.S. wage dispersion primarily reflects the substantially greater compression at the bottom of the wage distribution in the other countries. Duncan et al. (1995b) examined poverty and social-assistance dynamics in North American and European countries. Bjorklund and Jantti (1997) used the PSID to study intergenerational income mobility in Sweden and U.S. To advance basic research on the value and use of panel surveys for international comparative research, PSID, along with other panel surveys, is sponsoring a conference on cross-national research in October 2000. Demographic Trends and Behaviors The PSID continues to provide long-term histories of marriage, childbirth and living arrangement data to contribute to the understanding of these demographic trends and their effect on the socioeconomic well-being of families and individuals. Haveman et al. (1997), Corcoran & Kunz, (1997) and Foster et al, (1998) examined the costs and social consequences of teenage pregnancy and premarital childbirth. Blank (1998), Powell & Parcel (1997) and Hill et al. (forthcoming) investigated the living arrangement patterns and the effects of family structure and children’s early adult achievement and women’s early trajectories. Brines & Joyner (1999) attempted to explain what unites cohabiting partners over time. They tested the theory, and found support, that cohabitors are more likely to remain together under conditions of equality by modeling the stability of married and long-term cohabiting unions. Many researchers studied the relationship between marriage or marital dissolution and individuals’ earnings and labor supply behavior (Nakosteen & Zimmer 1997; Vanderklauw, 1996), health (Lillard & Waite,1995; Lillard and Panis, 1996), and intra-household resources (Ono, 1998). Moffit et al. (1998) used four data sets, including the PSID to investigate the extent and implications of cohabitation and marriage among U.S. welfare recipients. They found weak evidence in support of the idea that AFDC provided incentives for recipients to cohabit. Whittington and Alm (1997) examined the effect of income taxation on divorce and Gray (1998) examined divorce-law changes, household bargaining, and married women's labor supply. Neighborhood Effects Utilizing the neighborhood data that link to the rich family and individual information collected in the PSID, researchers were able to study effects of community on the life course. Scott & Crowder have a series of papers (1998; 1997; 1999) showing the level of neighborhood poverty weakens the relationship between childbirth and marriage for women. Education and marriage increase the likelihood of leaving poor tracts, while age, home ownership, and receiving public assistance reduce it. Residential segregation by race and poverty status and the supply of new housing in the metropolitan areas also influences the likelihood of moving between distressed and nondistressed neighborhood. Foster and McLanahan, (1996) examined whether neighborhood conditions affect a young person's chance of finishing high school. Sucoff & Upchurch (1998) found that compared with living in a racially mixed neighborhood, living in a highly segregated neighborhood is associated with a 50-percent increase in the rate of a premarital first birth, regardless of neighborhood socioeconomic status. Quillian (1999) found that the migration of the nonpoor away from moderately poor neighborhoods has been a key process in forming new high-poverty neighborhoods. He also found that neighborhoods with increasing black populations tend to lose white population rapidly. Harris (1999) examined whether the housing prices are lower in neighborhoods with high concentrations of black residents and, if so, whether this is due to racial discrimination. He found clear evidence that property values do respond to racial composition. However, housing in neighborhoods with a high percentage of black residents is less valuable not because of an aversion to blacks per se, but rather because people prefer affluent, well-educated neighbors, and these traits are more common among whites than blacks. Child Development. With the addition of the 1997 Child Development Supplement, the PSID has begun to contribute to child development literature with current, high-quality data based on a national sample. Recent work includes examination of children's time use (Hofferth and Sandberg, forthcoming), fathers' involvement with children (Yeung et al., forthcoming), and allocation of children's time in schools (Roth et al. 1999). We anticipate more work in this area with new data collected in the planned second-wave supplement in 2001. Other important contributions to individual and family well-being over the last decade include:Influences of Family History . There are several key findings in the demographic literature that could not have been obtained without longitudinal data following parents and children over a long period of time. These include the finding that parental divorce is bad for kids (e.g., McLanahan and Sandefur, 1994) and teenage childbearing is bad for the young mother (e.g., Hoffman et al., 1993), and that neighborhoods have effects on children's development independent of family characteristics (Brooks-Gunn et al., 1993). Intergenerational transfers and mobility are key issues addressed by the PSID because of its longitudinal nature. Long-Term Social Impacts on Health . In the health literature, researchers have found that the social environment of marriage decreases men's and women's risks of mortality, even taking positive selection into marriage into account (Lillard and Waite, 1995). Other work has examined the contribution of employment factors and personal health behaviors on mortality (e.g., Wolfe and Haveman, 1983; Haveman et al., 1994). Physical and environmental hazards lead to deterioration in men's and women's health status, net of other factors, and smoking has been found to be consistently harmful to health. Income and Balance Sheet Dynamics. A recent important finding is that, compared with the older generation, the younger generation has experienced a slowdown in the attainment of middle-class status and financial independence from their parents (Duncan et al., 1995a). For example, 42 percent of young men who turned 30 in 1989-1992 had attained middle-class earnings, compared with 60 percent of those who turned 30 in 1977-1988. This decline in upward mobility has been uniform across all demographic groups. In addition, the PSID is now being used to address the puzzle of the low savings rate in the United States. Recent work based on the PSID Supplemental Wealth Files indicates a high rate of decile wealth mobility (Hurst et al. 1998). Some of the diverse economic and social theories that have recently been--or can now or soon be--developed and tested with PSID data include: New DirectionsWhile many of the uses for which the PSID has become known could not have been anticipated in 1968, today we see that, given the enormous value of the dataset and funding limitations for conducting new studies, the data will become even more widely used in the future.Through supplements on intergenerational transfers, health and aging, wealth, and child development, and through its proposed immigrant supplement, in the next few years the PSID will have information of interest to an entire new generation of researchers that will inform policy and theory for the foreseeable future. Recently it has become common to hear of the central role of information technology (IT) in the ‘New Economy’. To date much of the evidence of an effect of IT is circumstantial. Many of the trends are newly emerging and the requisite data to capture the changing landscape are outside the range of traditional measurements. As of May 1999, a total of 171 million people worldwide are estimated to have Internet access and 97 million or 57 percent of the total are in Canada or the United States. The U.S. and Canada also have the highest percent of the population with Internet access at home or work (37 and 36 percent, respectively). The Nordic countries have use rates averaging 33 percent while Germany and Japan are at 10 percent. Evidence for a role of IT in shaping earnings is available from PSID files through 1997 via the use of data from our ‘Income Plus’ supplemental files, available on the web since the winter of 1999 and updated in April 2000. These files include family income and its components (notably labor earnings of head and spouse), work hours and work weeks, occupation and industry, and annual average hourly earnings. Overall, for those working 1500 hours per year or more, we have found strong earnings growth between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s. For women, in the middle percentiles, earnings were rising at a rate above the CPI-U. At the 50th percentile, earnings rose 13 percent, from $21,627 to $24,280. Allowing for CPI bias of 1 percent per year, this is in the range of 25 percent per decade. At the upper part of the earnings distribution, the gains net of inflation were much higher still. For the 90th percentile the 1985–1995 gains were 19.5 percent and for the 95th percentile the annual earnings of women working 1500 or more hours rose from $47,887 to $60,648, a gain of 26.6 percent above the CPI. Men’s earnings rose substantially in all but the middle percentiles, 1985–1995.
Analysis of the annual hourly earnings of men and women shows interesting effects of IT on the earnings of the Baby Boomers [bb], compared to earlier cohorts. Using kernel density estimation, we have the log wage experience profiles for men set out in Figure 2. These are disaggregated into those in IT industries [it] and non-IT industries based on Department of Commerce measures, defined by the shares of capital and workforce which are ‘IT’. To illustrate, depository institutions and pipelines are IT user industries, and telecommunications is both a producer and user of IT. The first notable feature is that the profile for non-IT (‘old economy’) Baby Boom college graduates lies somewhat (about 6 percent) below the profile for non-IT pre-Baby Boom cohorts. This implies that results based on parametric earnings models may fail to convey the within Baby Boom earnings variance for college graduates, a result which suggests that much of the college wage advantage reported in the economics literature is driven by the earnings of a small share of the group. Is this wage gain partly related to information technology? Among Baby Boomers with less than college education [hg], the IT advantage is quite small, overall about 7 percent. For Baby Boomers with college education, the IT advantage of younger workers (under 20 years experience) is more on the order of 20 percent. For the older college cohorts the IT advantage (not shown here) is also very small, also under 10 percent for most of the profile. While preliminary, these findings suggest a vintage effect of IT, wherein younger (here, Baby Boomer), male college cohorts were able to gain from a new technology compared to older cohorts. As the earnings history of later cohorts unfolds will they realize a still larger IT advantage? How large are the IT premiums for women? Initial work suggests an IT advantage there, too. References
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book chapters, government reports, working papers and dissertations have been
based upon the PSID. Over 300 of these are books and book chapters. Articles
have appeared in 234 different journals.